Immigration & Security Correlation Analysis
Statistical analysis of asylum applications from Middle Eastern countries and terrorism incidents in Europe (2011-2024)
Key Statistical Findings
2015 Refugee Crisis Peak
- • 1.32 million asylum applications (record high)
- • 537,000 from Middle East (Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq)
- • Attacks increased from 2 (2014) to 5 (2015) to 14 (2016)
- • 2016 saw deadliest year with 223 deaths from terrorism
Entry Methods Used by Attackers
- • Fake Syrian passports to blend with refugees
- • Greek islands → Balkans → Western Europe route
- • At least 7 of 9 Paris attackers entered via Hungary
- • Registration at refugee camps as cover
Year-by-Year Comparison: Asylum Applications vs. Terror Attacks
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015-2016 Crisis Period
1.32 million asylum applications in 2015 represented a 110% increase from 2014. Of these, 537,000 came from Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq.
Germany alone received 476,510 applications in 2015. Sweden received 162,877 despite having a population of only 10 million.
The Paris attacks (November 2015) occurred during this peak, with investigators confirming attackers used the refugee route to enter Europe.
2016 saw the highest number of attacks (14) and most deaths (223 including Nice truck attack: 86 deaths, Berlin Christmas market: 12 deaths, Brussels bombings: 32 deaths).
Entry Methods Analysis
Fake Syrian Passports: ISIS had access to thousands of blank Syrian passports. Attackers from Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria posed as Syrian refugees because Syrians had exceptionally high acceptance rates in Germany (96% in 2015).
The Balkan Route: Greek islands → Macedonia → Serbia → Croatia → Austria → Germany/France. Paris attackers followed this exact route, registering at Croatian refugee camp Opatovac.
Hungarian Intelligence Report: Confirmed that the majority of Paris and Brussels attackers infiltrated the EU by posing as refugees during the 2015 migration crisis.
Policy Context: "Wir Schaffen Das"
Angela Merkel's Open-Door Policy (August 2015)
On August 31, 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced "Wir schaffen das" ("We can do this"), effectively opening Germany's borders to refugees from Syria.
- •Germany processed 476,510 asylum applications in 2015 (up from 202,834 in 2014)
- •96% acceptance rate for Syrian asylum seekers created incentive for fake identities
- •Border controls suspended under Dublin Regulation pressure
- •3 months later, Paris attacks killed 130 (Nov 2015) with attackers using refugee routes
EU Policy Framework
- •Dublin Regulation: First EU country of entry responsible for asylum processing - overwhelmed Greece and Italy
- •Schengen Agreement: Open borders within EU enabled rapid movement across Europe
- •EU-Turkey Deal (March 2016): €6 billion to Turkey to stem migrant flow - came AFTER the Paris attacks and during ongoing attacks
- •Frontex: EU border agency criticized for inadequate screening during crisis peak
Statistical Summary (2011-2024)
Data Sources
- â–ªEurostat: Official EU asylum statistics database (2008-2024)
- â–ªEuropol TE-SAT Reports: Annual terrorism situation reports (2015-2024)
- â–ªUNHCR: Refugee crisis statistics and analysis
- â–ªHungarian Intelligence Services: Report on terrorist infiltration (2016)
- â–ªFrench/Belgian Court Documents: Paris and Brussels attack trial evidence
This analysis presents factual data from official sources. Correlation does not imply causation, but the documented use of refugee routes by terrorists and fake Syrian passports is established fact from court proceedings and intelligence reports.